Software developers see a way out, of course, through the the prism of their products. The cost distribution programs so small, that use them instead of costly equipment reduces price system. Another area of competition (and this fight has razvora- keener) - to supply software platforms for servers. The company Oracle, specializing in producing databases and programs for meynfrey- MOU and minicomputers, is only as servers meynfreymy minicomputers or administered software from Oracle. AT & T, with its expertise in the network business is likely to try to transfer renesti the focus to servers and switching equipment, leaving the share of information technology equipment, personal computers and television prefixes investment is a relatively simple task.
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We are in a Microsoft "hammer" software. We hope hope that the computing power of the information superhighway will porov- well, divided between servers and information equipment. This scheme sometimes called the "client-server architecture", as in this case, Information equipment (clients) and servers will jointly perform the same program. We do not think that will be needed supermarket giant computers, or even a group meynfreymy minicomputers. Instead, Microsoft, just as many representatives of industry and personal computer-network servers saw from dozens or hundreds of computers, not fundamentally different from the PC. They will be familiar shells, monitors and keyboards, they can be mounted on racks and location the wife in the central office cable or telephone system. To obuz- give "horse-power" of thousands of such machines would require the development of special Colonial programming techniques. Our approach is to assign coordination highway components and software implementation take it to a large number of possible serial (and therefore most cheap) machines-PCs.
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Our approach puts the use of all the advantages of information PC industries, including software. Personal computer will one of the main devices used on highways. We have seen tion that the TV console should borrow a maximum of PCs the technical functions that would facilitate the creation of programs to work for both types of devices. Then the Internet will be able to gradually evolved adjustment in the information highway without causing compatibility problems. We believe utilities, and applications written for today's PCs can be used to develop new programs. For example, consoles, on we believe that should be able to work with most of the programs at CD-ROM- drives for PCs, which are available in the next decade. Probably tions, someone objected that we think too narrowly, voobrazhaya that new peace will be kept only on personal computers. But every year in world sold more than 50 million PCs. These machines Park forms serious market for any developer programs, and a service provider.
Even if consumers suddenly will be the same millions telepris- tavok, compared to the market of personal computers this market all nor will simply negligible. At the creation of programs for specialized prefixes developer will be able to spend only a small fraction of their funds. Only the largest companies can invest in new applications that are not too perezhivaya magnitude of the market for these applications the short-term. Therefore, we believe that most of the innovations one way or another, will be linked to the expansion of existing markets and that progress towards interactive television and information magistra- there will likely rely on the market PC / Internet. However, similar by the arguments are in favor of other computer platforms or game prefixes.
The other software manufacturers also are confident in their strategy. In designing programs for television prefixes Apple the technology involves using Macintosh, and Silicon Graphics heritage toward adapted for this purpose operating system of its working stations UNIX version. One small company even wants to adapt needs new operating system, which is now mainly used anti-lock braking systems in trucks!
Similar decisions are now on prefixes and productivity drivers computer equipment. And companies that produce construction key electronics, undecided on what information it halts placement of-pocket computers to televisions, they will produce and what benefit programs.
Battle software architectures will last long enough and can be powerful lie down potential competitors are not yet formulated their interests. All program components will be compatible to a certain extent, the so - same as the current computer system. Now you can connect to the Internet chit virtually any computer, the same will and the information highway.
The question of how similar these platforms will be custom information terfeys remained open. A single user interface is well, unless you love it. There have identical tastes doshkolni- Chemicals, mom, dad and grandmother? Is it permissible to approach all the one sold tal? Strong arguments in favor of any point of view, enough, and so it will have to experiment here, leaving the market to the right choice.
There are other issues which need a solution market. For example, if advertising play an important role in disseminating information and fun educational materials or most of the consumers will pay for services directly? Will you manage themselves that will see on the screen, vper- New include television or other information appliance, or you still can this network provider?
The market would have an impact on the technical aspects of the network. Most experts believes that the online network will use ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode-asynchronous transfer mode), but the network faces today ATM- too expensive. If prices ATM- equipment, as their prices Microelectronic components will quickly fall, is one. But EC - whether for some reason they remain high, or rather will decline com slowly, it will probably have to convert signals in a another form before cast them into consumers homes.
Laying the information superhighway, which will lead to a massive the market will require expertise and the efforts of a wide variety of firms. Multidisciplinary com Spain might seem tempting to create all the components themselves house highway and ignite the market, but I think this would be a mistake.
I always thought that doing the best for those companies that focus on a narrow field of key tasks. One of the main by learned computer industry - and life itself - is that is virtually impossible to do everything well. IBM, DEC and others computer industry companies have tried to take on everything, including the chip, software, systems and consulting. When there mikropro- tsessory and personal computers, and the pace of technological progress witness upon accelerated, the strategy has become vulnerable, while impressive manufacturers have made progress, some concentration on individual fields. One company produced a good chip, the other well PC collect, third success in the distribution and system integration. Each new company, which achieved success, and has selected a narrow section of the beam it sirovala their efforts.
So stay alert! Those who try to combine work experience all aspects of the information superhighway into a single organization, it should be treat very skeptical. Most materials on the information formatsionnoy line press attention as it is precisely such drive What major commercial transactions. Company-media communications-merge and try different options. Some telephone companies buy quality oils. Wireline company AT & T acquired wireless McCaw Cellular connection. Disney Corporation bought Capital Cities-ABC, and Time Warner wants to acquire Turner Broadcasting. It will be done the time before companies who despair of such investments, able to judge whether they are right.
These transactions, they are good or bad, always pure society. For example, when tridtsatimilliardnaya deal between Bell Atlantic and TCI ended in failure, in the press long peddled topic: Does it would not the adverse impact on the information highway? My answer is not. Both the company continues to develop a very aggressive investment plans in highway construction of infrastructure.
The birth of the information superhighway depends on the development of personal computers, Internet and new applications. Successful or unsuccessful merger companies are not an indicator of progress or lack thereof. These transaction ki similar to background noise: it is, whether it listens someone or met. Microsoft plans to cooperate with hundreds of companies tions, including film studios, television networks, newspaper publishers and magazines. We hope that together we can create interesting applications for CD-ROMs, Internet and the information superhighway.
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We believe in alliances and seek to participate. But its key the mission, we nevertheless see in the creation of software components for information formatsionnoy line. We supply tools for the price the logo of a number of equipment manufacturers working on the new Applications slave. Many companies from around the world will work with us and watch so, as consumers respond to new applications. Reverse connection with the consumers, we attach great importance.
You can also read the information on the results of tests small tain. Whether users like the new game with a multitude of participants ? Will there be a new way to communicate partners? Whether they will help the network to work together? Will they buy something in the new market? There will be whether the new New amazing applications that it is difficult even to imagine? Then Do people want to pay for these new opportunities?
Answers to these questions is the key to understanding how development will Information Age. Supervise the merger of companies and the universal azhiota- sour very amusing. But if you are not interested in gold fever, and nas- toyaschee construction of highways, looking from time to time at the disparity lei computer connected to Internet, and check out the applications, which torye enjoy popular there. At least, I am going to revenue repeating the case.
CHAPTER 12
MAJOR PROBLEMS
We live in an amazing time - at the very beginning of the information age. Wherever I may come in by whomever talked (at the conference or for comedy house), I am almost always asked what changes augur Information technology. They wanted to know to what extent it will affect our lives. It will be better or worse?
I said that I am a natural optimist, and optimism about the future. New technology will enrich our leisure, cultural activates life, expanding access to a variety of information. You will get the opportunity to work at home or in remote offices, and this would weaken the pressure on urban What structure. Consumption of natural resources decline, as many pro - products will be produced not in the "real" form, but in the form of consistency Quantities of bits. New technology will help us become independent, wide re share experiences and buy goods, fitted under our inquiries. Citizens Information Society opened unprecedented opportunities for the work, education and recreation. States, boldly going forward, combining their efforts, will receive undoubted economic benefits. Arise entirely new markets and millions of new jobs.
The economy, if one looks at it through the prism of decades, always at the uphill. Over the past centuries, generation after generation found all the more effective ways to work, collecting huge baggage knowledge and experience. The average person today is better than something aristocrats a couple of centuries ago. Well would, of course, its own lands, but what then to do with his bolyachkami? After all, achieving only one health doctor substantially increased life expectancy and improved its classes l.
Henry Ford at the dawn of the twentieth century, has created the automotive industry of but today your car exceeds any of the vehicles while driving where he was sitting, one of the richest people in America at that time. Joint handholds machines and safer, and more reliable, but the stereo and talk nothing. But perfection has no limits. The steady increase productivity Labor has steadily moved by society on the path of progress, and an ordinary citizen a developed country will be, in many respects, "richer" any of us networks eco is only a matter of time.
My optimism does not mean that I look at the future through the prism rozo- New glasses. When creating an information society, as the costs are unavoidable with any major change. Begin turmoil in a number of business sectors sa, and engaged in have to restart them to other specialties. Access TNO cheap computers and telecommunications will change the relationship countries and socio-economic groups within states. The power of digital technology logy and the universality of their use will cause new difficulties in maintaining 's personal, commercial and government secrets. The Society again vskolyh- newspaper of the issues related to equality of all its members. For infor - tsionnaya line shall serve all citizens, not just technical tal and economic elite. In short, there is what to think. I do not pretend to distribute solutions for all the problems, but, as I have years Panel at the beginning of the book, it is time to start a broad debate tions. Technological progress has always posed to the community new, more complex problems, many of which even today can not be predicted. Temp the changes are so high that sometimes seems as if the world is updated almost every day. In fact, this is certainly not the case. But pereme- we need to prepare in advance. Society is in such difficult choices areas of universal access to education, funding, developing of a legislative framework and respect the balance between personal privacy kosnovennostyu and security of society.
However, as neither important to think about the future, beware of hasty Action. Until we are able to articulate only the most general questions, and hence, it is pointless to go into detailed elaboration of specific the laws. There is still time watch the development of the upcoming revolution tion to decide carefully and wisely, and not under the influence of rock tal.
Probably too many concerned about: "Will I be able to take their a place in the new economy? "Both men and women are afraid that their pro - trades obsolete that they do not adapt to unusual methods of work, that their children can connect their lives with the doomed branches industry of that changes in the economy will lead to universal unemployment oso- benno among older people. Their concern is justified. Indeed tion, faces oblivion as individual professions, and the industry generally industry. But in their place have other, previously unknown. All this happens in the next 2 - 3-decade-by historical standards, very quickly, but it may be the same peaceful, as "mikrop- rotsessornaya Revolution fundamentally changed our working conditions thou.